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ASEAN’s Crossroads: Why Turning a Blind Eye to Myanmar’s Sham Election Will Cost the Region

HURFOM: From the Thai–Burma border, the crises impacting Southeast Asia are felt every day. Local civilians and families escape airstrikes and random artillery shells, young people flee forced conscription, economies struggle with uncertainty, and cross-border scams fuel corruption and mistrust. Yet one question remains above all: will ASEAN continue to look away as Myanmar’s military Junta prepares a sham election amid the suffering of millions?

Since the coup in February 2021, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s military has driven Myanmar into a full civil war. Thousands have been killed, and more than 3.5 million people have been displaced. Airstrikes, artillery, night raids, and arbitrary arrests have become everyday realities for civilians who only seek safety and a brighter future.

The election’s first phase, scheduled to begin on 28 December 2025, offers no route to stability or peace. It is a political show designed to create a false sense of legitimacy in the limited areas still under the junta’s control, while deliberately excluding millions of citizens living in resistance-held regions. Even the junta leader has publicly acknowledged that voting will not take place in every constituency. In reality, the polls will only occur in territories governed by fear, surveillance, and military power.

International and regional voices already acknowledge this reality. The European Union and many human rights organisations have described the junta’s planned election as a regime-sponsored event that cannot deliver credible governance. Myanmar rights groups, civil society organisations, and ordinary citizens continue to unite, urging the international community to reject the Junta’s sham election and to support the democratic aspirations of the Myanmar people. Some political analysts also note that ASEAN must move beyond mere rejection and start preparing for what lies ahead, instead of treating this political theatre as a solution.

This is a pivotal moment for ASEAN, especially for Malaysia as the current Chair. The bloc has already excluded junta leaders from high-level meetings, which was an important signal for an organisation that traditionally avoids intervening in members’ internal issues. However, signals alone are no longer sufficient. Communities throughout Burma, including Dawei, Mon State, Karen State, and Karenni State, continue to suffer each day.

The extent of abuse is well documented. As of 17 October 2025, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reported over 29,800 arrests since the coup, approximately 22,500 people still detained, and at least 7,300 civilians killed. The Karenni Human Rights Group recorded in the past three months 63 civilians killed, 114 injured, 195 homes and properties destroyed, 33 mortar shells fired, and 18 airstrikes. These figures reveal a pattern of systematic attacks on civilians.

The southeast reports the same situation. HURFOM’s documentation in Mon State, Karen State, and Tanintharyi Region recorded during the third week of October 2025 at least 32 civilians arrested, 27 detained, 21 injured, and 7 killed. Since the coup, the totals in these three regions have exceeded 8,160 people arrested or detained, 2,698 injured, and 997 killed. Displacement has increased significantly. More than 1.4 million people in the southeast alone have been forced from their homes and are sheltering in forests, caves, and temporary sites as the rains persist.

Behind the numbers are daily choices no family should face. Young people are seized for forced military service, often taken from homes, roads, or checkpoints. Parents are extorted to keep their sons safe. Many youths feel they have no future and try to reach Thailand for work or refuge. When deportations send them back, they land in the hands of the same authorities who seek conscripts or punish suspected opponents.

 Those young people who are eventually released did not gain their freedom easily. Their parents and family members had to pay enormous sums of money, often in the millions of kyats, demanded by the junta forces. It was like paying a ransom for their own children’s lives. Even then, only families with some financial means could afford to do so, leaving many others with no hope of rescuing their loved ones. This cycle does not create order. It makes a more profound crisis that crosses borders and undermines regional security.

ASEAN’s concern for stability is understandable. Stability cannot be achieved through a military regime that bombs its own people and imprisons its critics. It can only be realised by listening to and supporting Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement and by insisting on conditions that safeguard civilians and enable genuine political participation.

There is also a regional interest involved. The scam economy flourishes in regions where law and rights have broken down. Conflict fuels trafficking, corruption, and illegal finance that cross borders. Viewing the planned election as a step toward normalcy risks solidifying this lawlessness and undermining confidence in ASEAN’s ability to respond to threats that affect the entire region.

What needs to be done now is clear and deliberate. ASEAN should clearly state that the junta’s planned vote cannot be considered credible. The bloc should coordinate with partners to increase pressure on those who order and enable attacks on civilians, while expanding humanitarian access through local civil society networks that already serve vulnerable communities. The Five-Point Consensus should be viewed as a minimum standard, not a limit. Protecting civilians, releasing detainees, ensuring unrestricted aid, and fostering inclusive dialogue must be actively pursued, not just acknowledged in statements.

For those of us who have watched this crisis unfold closely, the message is clear. The cost of silence is already evident in displaced families, closed schools, and a generation of young people driven into exile or compelled into service. ASEAN cannot afford to ignore it. Courageous and principled action today won’t fix everything, but it will prevent the ongoing normalisation of a war against civilians and leave room for a genuine political solution tomorrow.

Civilians Bear the Brunt of Escalating Junta Violence

This past week has once again laid bare the relentless cruelty of the Junta and its allied forces across Mon State, Karen State, and Tanintharyi Region. The pattern is unmistakable: arbitrary arrests, sexual violence, indiscriminate airstrikes, and the systematic use of civilians as human shields are escalating, while families continue to lose homes, livelihoods, and loved ones.

HURFOM field sources confirmed at least 38 people arrested, including those who remain missing and are believed to be held in junta custody in Mawlamyine, Thaton, and Ye. More than 29 people were detained, 17 injured, and 8 killed. Among the most alarming cases was the abduction of 35 civilians from Kayin Lay Seik Village on 28 September, including a 13-year-old child and elderly women, who are feared to be forced to the frontlines as human shields. In Ye Township, a military column of over 250 troops stormed multiple villages on 25 September, taking more than 30 villagers in the same way.

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Armed Conflict is Destroying Yebyu Township

For nearly three decades, HURFOM has worked alongside communities in Mon State, Karen State, and the Tanintharyi Region to document the violations that define their daily lives. Our role has always been to bear witness and ensure that the voices of those silenced on the ground are not lost. Each month, our field networks risk their safety to record the reality of civilians living under junta rule. What they find is devastating but necessary to tell: in September 2025 alone, more than 30 new cases of human rights violations were documented across 14 townships. These figures are not just statistics, they reveal the worsening crisis as communities are battered by airstrikes, artillery fire, arbitrary arrests, and the slow erosion of their most basic rights. Among the hardest-hit areas is Yebyu Township, where entire villages have been emptied as people flee junta offensives.

Since early July 2025, the military has launched indiscriminate artillery attacks on Ma Yan Chaung and Kaw Hline villages in Yebyu Township, claiming that Mon and Karen revolutionary forces are active in the area. By mid-August, heavy clashes had broken out, and from August 17 to September 10, junta regiments engaged in near-constant fighting with resistance forces.

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Bearing Witness Under Fire: Documenting Abuses Despite Threats and Intimidation

For three decades, the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM) has stood with the people of Mon State, Karen State, and Tanintharyi Region. Since its founding in 1995, HURFOM has documented abuses that others have tried to hide—arbitrary arrests, forced displacement, extortion, and killings—and shared them with the world in the hope of ending impunity.

Our latest edition of The Mon Forum (Vol. 10, Issue 8, August 2025) highlights the challenges we face in keeping this commitment. Despite the ever-present risks, our team continues to gather and release information through our website and social media channels. Each month, HURFOM field reporters record between 40 and 50 cases of violations. In August alone, we published over 30 news articles from across 15 townships. These cases document the worsening patterns of violence and oppression that civilians endure daily.

Threats Against Civilians and Monitors

The cost of exposing truth remains painfully high. Since the attempted coup on 1 February 2021, the military has intensified its campaign of terror. Villagers are caught between junta troops and armed resistance groups, both of which station themselves close to civilian areas. Lawlessness has spread, and people who dare to speak out are at greater risk than ever.

This is not new. In the early days of the coup, when our office was still inside Burma, a village administrator threatened a local woman simply because she had shared a photo of abuses with HURFOM. To protect her, we stopped publishing reports in Burmese for years. Four years later, in August 2025, history repeated itself: another woman who sent a photo to HURFOM was arrested and threatened by an armed group. Once again, our team moved quickly to ensure her safety. These are not isolated cases—they show the grave dangers that ordinary people face when they try to tell the truth.

Continuing the Struggle

Operating from the Thai–Burma border has not shielded us from threats. Armed groups and junta forces continue to monitor, intimidate, and obstruct our work. On several occasions, we have been forced to take down or edit sensitive stories to protect sources and local communities. Our priority will always be the safety of the people who entrust us with their stories.

Still, the scale of the crisis demands that we persevere. Over 3.5 million people have been displaced nationwide, and in HURFOM areas alone, tens of thousands are forced to flee again and again due to airstrikes, artillery shelling, and landmines. Our field teams report hundreds of extortion cases every month: police taking 20,000 MMK at one gate, soldiers another 2,000 MMK at the next. Food transport is seized; travelers are harassed; families are threatened. These patterns, which we document case by case, reveal the junta’s systematic strategy to impoverish and control communities.

A Mission Without Retreat

Despite the threats, HURFOM has never given up its mission: to protect and promote human rights, to end impunity, and to contribute to a genuine peace built on federal democracy. Our role is not only to expose atrocities but also to honor the courage of survivors, whistleblowers, and community leaders who risk their safety for justice.

We know this work is dangerous. But silence would be more dangerous still—for victims, for communities, and for the future of our country.

As one elder from Thaton told our team this month: “If we stop speaking, it will be as if these abuses never happened. We cannot let the truth be buried.”

Looking Ahead

HURFOM remains committed to documenting every violation we can, and to ensuring that international actors cannot claim ignorance of the suffering in our areas. The road to federal democracy is long and difficult, but our work—grounded in truth, courage, and solidarity with the people—continues.

Our hope is that the testimonies we collect today will one day serve not only as evidence against perpetrators, but also as a record of resilience and dignity for future generations.

Commentary: Civilians in Mon State Living Between Two Fires as Junta Pushes Forward Sham Election

The people of Mon State are enduring unbearable suffering as the military junta escalates its campaign of fear and violence. While intensifying airstrikes, artillery shelling, and mass arrests, the regime is also pressing ahead with a sham election intended to manufacture legitimacy. For ordinary families, these parallel crises mean living each day in fear, displacement, and uncertainty.

The Humanitarian Crisis on the Ground

In Bilin, Kyaikto, and Ye townships, clashes between junta troops and resistance forces have driven thousands from their homes. Displaced families are struggling without food, shelter, or medicine, with many forced to survive on nothing more than rice porridge. “Children and the elderly are getting sick. We are appealing for aid as quickly as possible,” one villager in Ye Township told HURFOM fieldworkers.

Landmines contaminate fields, making even farming dangerous, while indiscriminate drone strikes and artillery fire continue to devastate villages. Monks and monasteries, once sanctuaries, now shelter frightened civilians caught in this relentless war.

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Junta’s air assault forces residents from seven villages to flee home

HURFOM: On March 2nd, 2024, the military junta launched air assaults on Tha Yet Chaung Township, Dawei District, Tenasserim Division forcing residents from seven villages to flee their homes and find safe shelter.

After a “Pyu Saw Hitee” , a pro-military camp in Yaung Maw village was attacked, the junta responded with a Mi-2 helicopter led air assault. This forced residents from King Shae, Saw Phyar, Say Hpyat Gone, Moe Shwe Gone, Ann Pyin, Kyet Sar Pyin and Kyar Inn villages to flee their homes.

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Mon people question conduct of the NMSP

HURFOM: At 3:13 pm on June 16, 2023, the 31st local military battalion launched indiscriminate artillery attacks on Kyouk Eye (Win Ta Maw) village, Khaw Zar Sub-township, Southern Ye Township, Mon State and killed a local woman.

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Woman shot and killed in Lamine

HURFOM: At approximately 10 am on June 22, 2023, a 50-year-old woman from Lamine Town, Ye Township, Mon State was shot and killed by two unknown men, according to a local report.

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Junta arrests nine Mawlamyine residents accusing them of involvement in “Flower Strike”

HURFOM: June 19, 2023 is the State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s birthday, and the whole country had organized a “Flower Strike” to celebrate her 78^th birthday.

In Mawlamyine, Mon State, the junta arrested nine residents for contributing to the “Flower Strike” and detained them.

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Travelers are in fear as junta attacks Thanbyuzayat-Ye highway roads

HURFOM: On June 20, 2023, the 27th Battalion of the 5th Brigade of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the People Defense Forces (PDF) stopped and checked travelers on the Thanbyuzayat-Ye-Dawei Highway Road.

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