ASEAN’s Crossroads: Why Turning a Blind Eye to Myanmar’s Sham Election Will Cost the Region

October 21, 2025

HURFOM: From the Thai–Burma border, the crises impacting Southeast Asia are felt every day. Local civilians and families escape airstrikes and random artillery shells, young people flee forced conscription, economies struggle with uncertainty, and cross-border scams fuel corruption and mistrust. Yet one question remains above all: will ASEAN continue to look away as Myanmar’s military Junta prepares a sham election amid the suffering of millions?

Since the coup in February 2021, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s military has driven Myanmar into a full civil war. Thousands have been killed, and more than 3.5 million people have been displaced. Airstrikes, artillery, night raids, and arbitrary arrests have become everyday realities for civilians who only seek safety and a brighter future.

The election’s first phase, scheduled to begin on 28 December 2025, offers no route to stability or peace. It is a political show designed to create a false sense of legitimacy in the limited areas still under the junta’s control, while deliberately excluding millions of citizens living in resistance-held regions. Even the junta leader has publicly acknowledged that voting will not take place in every constituency. In reality, the polls will only occur in territories governed by fear, surveillance, and military power.

International and regional voices already acknowledge this reality. The European Union and many human rights organisations have described the junta’s planned election as a regime-sponsored event that cannot deliver credible governance. Myanmar rights groups, civil society organisations, and ordinary citizens continue to unite, urging the international community to reject the Junta’s sham election and to support the democratic aspirations of the Myanmar people. Some political analysts also note that ASEAN must move beyond mere rejection and start preparing for what lies ahead, instead of treating this political theatre as a solution.

This is a pivotal moment for ASEAN, especially for Malaysia as the current Chair. The bloc has already excluded junta leaders from high-level meetings, which was an important signal for an organisation that traditionally avoids intervening in members’ internal issues. However, signals alone are no longer sufficient. Communities throughout Burma, including Dawei, Mon State, Karen State, and Karenni State, continue to suffer each day.

The extent of abuse is well documented. As of 17 October 2025, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reported over 29,800 arrests since the coup, approximately 22,500 people still detained, and at least 7,300 civilians killed. The Karenni Human Rights Group recorded in the past three months 63 civilians killed, 114 injured, 195 homes and properties destroyed, 33 mortar shells fired, and 18 airstrikes. These figures reveal a pattern of systematic attacks on civilians.

The southeast reports the same situation. HURFOM’s documentation in Mon State, Karen State, and Tanintharyi Region recorded during the third week of October 2025 at least 32 civilians arrested, 27 detained, 21 injured, and 7 killed. Since the coup, the totals in these three regions have exceeded 8,160 people arrested or detained, 2,698 injured, and 997 killed. Displacement has increased significantly. More than 1.4 million people in the southeast alone have been forced from their homes and are sheltering in forests, caves, and temporary sites as the rains persist.

Behind the numbers are daily choices no family should face. Young people are seized for forced military service, often taken from homes, roads, or checkpoints. Parents are extorted to keep their sons safe. Many youths feel they have no future and try to reach Thailand for work or refuge. When deportations send them back, they land in the hands of the same authorities who seek conscripts or punish suspected opponents.

Those young people who are eventually released did not gain their freedom easily. Their parents and family members had to pay enormous sums of money, often in the millions of kyats, demanded by the junta forces. It was like paying a ransom for their own children’s lives. Even then, only families with some financial means could afford to do so, leaving many others with no hope of rescuing their loved ones. This cycle does not create order. It makes a more profound crisis that crosses borders and undermines regional security.

ASEAN’s concern for stability is understandable. Stability cannot be achieved through a military regime that bombs its own people and imprisons its critics. It can only be realised by listening to and supporting Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement and by insisting on conditions that safeguard civilians and enable genuine political participation.

There is also a regional interest involved. The scam economy flourishes in regions where law and rights have broken down. Conflict fuels trafficking, corruption, and illegal finance that cross borders. Viewing the planned election as a step toward normalcy risks solidifying this lawlessness and undermining confidence in ASEAN’s ability to respond to threats that affect the entire region.

What needs to be done now is clear and deliberate. ASEAN should clearly state that the junta’s planned vote cannot be considered credible. The bloc should coordinate with partners to increase pressure on those who order and enable attacks on civilians, while expanding humanitarian access through local civil society networks that already serve vulnerable communities. The Five-Point Consensus should be viewed as a minimum standard, not a limit. Protecting civilians, releasing detainees, ensuring unrestricted aid, and fostering inclusive dialogue must be actively pursued, not just acknowledged in statements.

For those of us who have watched this crisis unfold closely, the message is clear. The cost of silence is already evident in displaced families, closed schools, and a generation of young people driven into exile or compelled into service. ASEAN cannot afford to ignore it. Courageous and principled action today won’t fix everything, but it will prevent the ongoing normalisation of a war against civilians and leave room for a genuine political solution tomorrow.

Written by HURFOM · Filed Under Commentary