The New Civil War and Human Rights after Elections
November 3, 2010
People all over in Burma always have expectations for peace in Burma, because they do not want to suffer more from political oppression, economic deterioration, human rights abuses, etc. But they are very unlucky because their unwanted and undesired new government, formed by military commanders and the leaders from Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), will not make much change. The change will be just like an old wine in a new bottle, meaning there will be a new government but with the old guard and old policies.
There is a very little expectation that the new government will stop civil war. The new government is completely formed and based on the 2008 Constitution. The constitution plans to consolidate all ethnic armed forces into the Burmese Army under the name of the “Border Guard Force” or “Militia Force”. Many larger ethnic armed forces did not agree with this plan and will reject similar plans, if pushed by the USDP government. Then civil war will break out.
New civil war will extend along the whole Sino-Burmese border and Thai- Burmese border, and a bit along the India and Bangladesh borders with Burma. With the new government orders and support, an intensive military offensive against the ethnic armed forces will be conducted in order to pressure them to lay down their arms.
But learning from 5 decades civil war in Burma, nobody, not the Burmese Army nor ethnic armed forces, can win this war. The people just suffer and suffer. Human rights violations have been widespread, and there has been no safe place for thousands of displaced persons to take shelter. Refugees even now remain in Thailand and Bangladesh.
Although the people in Burma dreamed for peace, they will continuously suffer various types of abuses. The international community must understand the situation in Burma and needs to find a way to support peace and reconciliation in Burma.